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The latest news from Public Opinion Polls for Oakland, N.J. Here, you can read press releases about my polls and advancements that have been made with the polling organization.

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Winter 2013 Poll

Posted on January 19, 2013 at 1:30 PM Comments comments (0)

The Winter 2013 Poll has now started! The poll started today, January 19, 2013 and will end on February 14, 2013. Poll is open to Oakland residents only.

Please share the poll with your fellow Oakland residents and have them take it by the 14th in order to be counted in the survey. Due to my busy schedule and the cold weather, the poll will only be available and can only be taken online, so it is important that this poll goes viral.

Poll: http://oaklandnjpolls.webs.com/latest-poll

 

How'd I do? The 2012 Election Edition

Posted on November 12, 2012 at 8:35 PM Comments comments (0)

As I did in 2011, I like to try and give myself and give you, the reader, an honest look at the accuracy of my polling. Being that I'm a one-man band and I do not have the staffing that many professionals do, I do my best to get as many Oaklanders to take my poll as possible to try and get the best result. In addition, I do not weight or do anything to the numbers I recieve, like many others do in their polls. I just look at the straight facts...what did I collect in my data and what actually happened on Election Day.

Below is what I found/thought and what actually happened and my thoughts about the findings comparing my Election 2012 Poll (click Results to see the entire poll findings) and the election results just for Oakland. The margin of error for the Election 2012 Poll was 12.5%.


Presidential Election in Oakland

My Poll:

Obama-26%

Romney-64%

Would vote for someone else/third party candidate-8%

 

Actual:

Obama-42.9%

Romney-55.5%

Other-1.5%


So on the Presidential Race, my Romney and "other" estimate was within the margin of error, but Obama's numbers were higher than expected. It may be that I was off, but I know many people who were unsure of who to vote for went for Obama because of his response to Hurricane Sandy. Whether that happened here in Oakland I don't know, but regardless, the result for the President was off but the other two bits of data were within the margin of error.


Senate Election in Oakland

Poll*:

Kyrillos-33%

Menendez-18%

Would vote for someone else-3%

 

Actual:

Kyrillos-53.7%

Menendez-44.6%

Other-1.7%

*Poll also had section for undecided


With this one, while it is interesting to look at, I had an option in the poll for people to choose undecided as an option, where I did not in the Presidential race. So the someone else/other category was very accurate but the numbers were deflated in my poll as 44% had chosen undecided. So if you are to compare the difference between the two candidates in the poll and in the election, that would have to be the best indicator. In my poll, the difference between Kyrillos and Mendendez is 15 points. In the election, it was about 9 points. Both are within the margin of error and given the situation I had with the undecided answers, I have to think this was fairly accurate.


Freeholder Election in Oakland

Poll*:

Hermansen-18%

Tanelli-9%

Watkins-13%

Zur-8%

 

Actual:

Hermansen-30%

Tanelli-21%

Watkins-29%

Zur-20%

*Poll also had section for undecided


I was very surprised about the way the freeholder election turned out. The numbers for Hermansen were pretty accurate, given it just fits the margin of error in addition to the fact that a possible answer was also "not sure" which 52% answered in the poll. The others, Tanelli, Watkins, and Zur were much higher and different that I would have thought and the poll showed. But given that this seemed to be a Democratic year for the most part in Bergen County and in the nation, I guess the undecided Oaklanders went in the Dems direction.


Council Election in Oakland

Poll*:

Kikot-19%

Piccoli-18%

Pignatelli-20%

Visconti-16%

 

Actual:

Kikot-19%

Piccoli-23%

Pignatelli-29%

Visconti-29%

*Poll also had section for undecided


Except for the victory that I nailed Kikot's poll numbers on the nose, Piccoli's numbers came pretty close to my polling and Pignatelli was slightly off, but within margin of error. This poll also had a choice for "not sure" so some numbers might have been off, which could possibly explain the 13 point difference in Visconti's polling and actual vote-getting numbers.



Overall, I think this year was a draw. Some numbers in my polling I was very pleased with and came very close to the real numbers. Others were off by a pretty good margin and part of it was my fault in not getting more poll takers and also my fault in that people chose undecided or not sure as poll answers which certainly took away from certain candidates.

Did you watch the debate?

Posted on October 23, 2012 at 6:30 PM Comments comments (0)

Well, I hope you watched the Presidential debate last night, but let me be a bit more specific...did you also catch the town council debate?

If you didn't, I encourage you to do so by tuning in to Oakland TV, channel 77 for Oakland Cablevision customers and channel 45 for FiOS customers from now until the election. The debate can viewed at 8am, 4pm, and 10pm.

If you did watch the council candidates debate, you probably recognized someone who appeared in the first 45 seconds or so of the debate...that was me! :)

I am very thankful that I was able to talk to Mr. Marcalus, the Republican campaign manager, Mr. Schwager, the Democratic campaign manager, and Ms. Greenburg, the moderator, to allow me to introduce the candidates, and myself, to the citizens of Oakland.

Several pictures are below, and I will also be working on, editing, and uploading the interviews I had with all four council candidates by the end of this week.


Election 2012 Poll Results

Posted on October 18, 2012 at 6:55 PM Comments comments (2)

Results for the Election 2012 Poll taken from September 29, 2012 until October 17, 2012. Margin of error is 12.5%.

 

1. Are you a male or female?

  • Male --> 61%
  • Female --> 39%

 

2. What is your age?

  • 18-25 --> 7%
  • 26-34 --> 11%
  • 35-44 --> 23%
  • 45-59 --> 48%
  • 60+ --> 11%

 

3. Are you registered in a political party?

  • Yes, I am a registered Democrat --> 28%
  • Yes, I am a registered Republican --> 49%
  • No, I am an independent --> 21%
  • I am not registered to vote at all --> 2%

 

4. If the election for President was held today, who would you vote for (given that both Obama and Romney are their party's nominees)?

 

  • Barack Obama --> 26%
  • Mitt Romney --> 64%
  • Would vote for someone else/third party candidate --> 8%
  • Not Registered to Vote --> 2%

 

5.  If you were to make a prediction, who do you think will win the 2012 Presidential Election? Please note that is a prediction, not necessarily who you plan to vote for on Election Day.

  • Barack Obama --> 61%
  • Mitt Romney --> 39%
  • A Third Party Candidate --> 0%

 

6. Who do you plan to vote for in the U.S. Senate election?

  •  Robert Menendez -->18%
  • Joe Kyrillos --> 33%
  • Undecided --> 44%
  • Would vote for someone else --> 3%
  • Not Registered to Vote --> 2%

 

7. For County Freeholder, which candidates will you be voting for? (select who/what applies, no more than 2 names)

  • Rob Hermansen --> 18%
  • Steve Tanelli--> 9%
  • Peg Watkins --> 13%
  • Tracy Zur --> 8%
  • NOT SURE (about one or both choices) --> 52%

 

 

8. If you were to grade Mayor Schwager on her term so far, what would you give her?

  •  A --> 18%
  • B --> 41%
  • C --> 30%
  • D --> 8%
  • F --> 3%

 

9. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Oakland's Borough Council is doing?

  • Approve Strongly --> 7%
  • Approve --> 44%
  • No opinion/Don't know --> 30%
  • Disapprove --> 16%
  • Disapprove Strongly --> 3%

 

10. Who do you plan to vote for in Oakland's town council election? (choose who/what applies, no more than 2 names)

  • Peter Kikot --> 19%
  • Cheryl Piccoli --> 18%
  • Pat Pignatelli --> 20%
  • Chris Visconti --> 16%
  • NOT SURE (about one or both choices) --> 26%
  • Not Registered to Vote --> 1%

 

11. Do you think that the Oakland Board of Education election should be held in April or November?

  • April --> 20%
  • November --> 54%
  • Doesn't matter to me --> 26%

 

12. Have you taken one of my polls before?

  • YES --> 46%
  • NO --> 51%
  • NOT SURE --> 3%

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