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How'd I do? The 2012 Election Edition

Posted on November 12, 2012 at 8:35 PM

As I did in 2011, I like to try and give myself and give you, the reader, an honest look at the accuracy of my polling. Being that I'm a one-man band and I do not have the staffing that many professionals do, I do my best to get as many Oaklanders to take my poll as possible to try and get the best result. In addition, I do not weight or do anything to the numbers I recieve, like many others do in their polls. I just look at the straight facts...what did I collect in my data and what actually happened on Election Day.

Below is what I found/thought and what actually happened and my thoughts about the findings comparing my Election 2012 Poll (click Results to see the entire poll findings) and the election results just for Oakland. The margin of error for the Election 2012 Poll was 12.5%.


Presidential Election in Oakland

My Poll:

Obama-26%

Romney-64%

Would vote for someone else/third party candidate-8%

 

Actual:

Obama-42.9%

Romney-55.5%

Other-1.5%


So on the Presidential Race, my Romney and "other" estimate was within the margin of error, but Obama's numbers were higher than expected. It may be that I was off, but I know many people who were unsure of who to vote for went for Obama because of his response to Hurricane Sandy. Whether that happened here in Oakland I don't know, but regardless, the result for the President was off but the other two bits of data were within the margin of error.


Senate Election in Oakland

Poll*:

Kyrillos-33%

Menendez-18%

Would vote for someone else-3%

 

Actual:

Kyrillos-53.7%

Menendez-44.6%

Other-1.7%

*Poll also had section for undecided


With this one, while it is interesting to look at, I had an option in the poll for people to choose undecided as an option, where I did not in the Presidential race. So the someone else/other category was very accurate but the numbers were deflated in my poll as 44% had chosen undecided. So if you are to compare the difference between the two candidates in the poll and in the election, that would have to be the best indicator. In my poll, the difference between Kyrillos and Mendendez is 15 points. In the election, it was about 9 points. Both are within the margin of error and given the situation I had with the undecided answers, I have to think this was fairly accurate.


Freeholder Election in Oakland

Poll*:

Hermansen-18%

Tanelli-9%

Watkins-13%

Zur-8%

 

Actual:

Hermansen-30%

Tanelli-21%

Watkins-29%

Zur-20%

*Poll also had section for undecided


I was very surprised about the way the freeholder election turned out. The numbers for Hermansen were pretty accurate, given it just fits the margin of error in addition to the fact that a possible answer was also "not sure" which 52% answered in the poll. The others, Tanelli, Watkins, and Zur were much higher and different that I would have thought and the poll showed. But given that this seemed to be a Democratic year for the most part in Bergen County and in the nation, I guess the undecided Oaklanders went in the Dems direction.


Council Election in Oakland

Poll*:

Kikot-19%

Piccoli-18%

Pignatelli-20%

Visconti-16%

 

Actual:

Kikot-19%

Piccoli-23%

Pignatelli-29%

Visconti-29%

*Poll also had section for undecided


Except for the victory that I nailed Kikot's poll numbers on the nose, Piccoli's numbers came pretty close to my polling and Pignatelli was slightly off, but within margin of error. This poll also had a choice for "not sure" so some numbers might have been off, which could possibly explain the 13 point difference in Visconti's polling and actual vote-getting numbers.



Overall, I think this year was a draw. Some numbers in my polling I was very pleased with and came very close to the real numbers. Others were off by a pretty good margin and part of it was my fault in not getting more poll takers and also my fault in that people chose undecided or not sure as poll answers which certainly took away from certain candidates.

Categories: Poll Completion/Results, Other

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